China'S Exports Have A Negative Growth Of &Nbsp For The First Time In Two Years, And The Future Export Situation Is Grim.

On 10 February, customs data released by the Customs General Administration on 10 showed that in January, China exported 149 billion 940 million US dollars, down 0.5%, the first negative growth since December 2009.

Experts said that in January, I entered foreign trade.

Export growth continued to decline, and foreign trade policy will remain stable.

Customs data show that China's foreign trade import and export value of US $272 billion 600 million, down 7.8% compared with the same period last year, of which, imports of 122 billion 660 million US dollars, down 15.3%.

Because this year's Spring Festival holiday is in January, there are only 17 working days in that month, which is 4 working days less than the same period last year.

According to international practice and the reality of China, seasonal adjustment method can eliminate the influence of Spring Festival.

Adjusted by seasonally adjusted method, China's import and export, exports and imports grew by 6.2%, 10.3% and 1.5% respectively in January.

"In January, China's foreign trade import and export data are in line with expectations and conform to our judgement on the trend of foreign trade exports in the first half of this year."

Zhao Jinping, deputy director of the Ministry of foreign economic development of the State Council Development Research Center, said.

Export growth in January continued the trend of diminishing monthly export growth in August last year.

"In 2012, the situation of China's import and export of foreign trade will be quite grim."

The national development and Reform Commission

Zhao Jinping said that from the European debt crisis and the United States debt crisis and a series of International

Before the import and export data were released, Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce, said that the export figures in January could not "make us optimistic". China will maintain the overall stability of its import and export policies.

For example, we should keep the export tax rebate policy basically stable, speed up the export tax rebate progress, maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate, and maintain the basic stability of the processing trade policy.

If the relevant policies are to be moderately adjusted, it is more encouraging than restrictive.

We should effectively reduce tax burden on import and export enterprises and increase financial support.

In the future, import growth will pick up slightly or exceed export growth.

As for the apparent growth rate of imports in January, experts pointed out that the single month data can not explain the long-term trend.

Compared with the first half of last year, the price of international bulk products such as iron ore and oil prices dropped by about 20% in January, resulting in a decrease in import volume.

According to customs data, in January, China's imports of primary products amounted to 48 billion 790 million US dollars, down 0.4%.

Of these, 59 million 320 thousand tons of imported iron ore were reduced by 13.9%, the average import price was 136.5 US dollars per ton, down 10.9%, import soybean 4 million 610 thousand tons, 10.2% reduction, and import average price of 525.8 US dollars per ton, down 5.8%.

Zhao Jinping said that in the long run, China's economy is growing faster than the global economy, and domestic demand is better than foreign demand. In the coming months, the growth rate of China's imports will rise slightly and may exceed export growth.

However, a steady slowdown in domestic demand will bring downward pressure on China's imports. Therefore, China's foreign trade import is unlikely to come back sharply in the future.

Customs data show that in January, my foreign trade surplus amounted to US $27 billion 280 million.

Sino EU bilateral trade totaled 42 billion 680 million US dollars, down 7.1%; Sino US bilateral trade value was 35 billion 460 million US dollars, down 3.9%; Sino Japanese bilateral trade total value was 22 billion 730 million US dollars, down 18.4%.

The total trade between China and Russia is 7 billion 160 million US dollars, an increase of 26.8%; the total trade between China and Brazil is 6 billion 340 million US dollars, an increase of 5.7%.

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Structural changes in China's foreign trade will continue to decrease.

Zhang Yansheng pointed out that in the next 5 years, China's foreign trade structure is in a period of intense change. Through overseas investment and capital export, China's import and export markets, products, and other three aspects are undergoing structural changes.

On the one hand, China's traditional trade market has shrunk to varying degrees, and the import and export of emerging and non-traditional markets have increased.

On the other hand, the export of traditional products will decrease in varying degrees according to the intensity of labor force. Due to the rising labor force prices in China, the decline of labor intensive products such as textiles and footwear will be greater in the next few years. However, the export of construction machinery and equipment manufacturing products in China will continue to grow.

In January, the export of traditional bulk commodities in China was stable, with clothing exports of 13 billion 840 million US dollars, an increase of 3.5%; textile exports of US $7 billion 680 million, a decrease of 6.8%; footwear exports of US $4 billion 60 million, a decrease of 1.3%; furniture exports 3 billion 510 million US dollars, a decrease of 2%; exports of plastic products 1 billion 960 million US dollars, an increase of 5.4%; exports of bags and cases were 1 billion 770 million dollars, and decreased;

The above 7 traditional labor-intensive commodities account for 22.4% of the total value of China's exports over the same period.

Zhang Yansheng said that the United States government proposed to revitalize the manufacturing industry, expand exports, encourage American enterprises to withdraw to the mainland, and solve the problem of "Industrial Hollowing" in the United States.

In the future, our country may face the trend of European and American enterprises withdrawing from China. Foreign direct investment will shift from the past export mode to the domestic sales mode aiming at the domestic market, and from processing trade to domestic investment and construction. Therefore, the processing trade will take a significant structural change in the half of China's foreign trade export, and China's foreign trade surplus will continue to decline.

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In the future, import growth will pick up slightly or exceed export growth.

As for the apparent growth rate of imports in January, experts pointed out that the single month data can not explain the long-term trend.

Compared with the first half of last year, the price of international bulk products such as iron ore and oil prices dropped by about 20% in January, resulting in a decrease in import volume.

According to customs data, in January, China's imports of primary products amounted to 48 billion 790 million US dollars, down 0.4%.

Of these, 59 million 320 thousand tons of imported iron ore were reduced by 13.9%, the average import price was 136.5 US dollars per ton, down 10.9%, import soybean 4 million 610 thousand tons, 10.2% reduction, and import average price of 525.8 US dollars per ton, down 5.8%.

Zhao Jinping said that in the long run, China's economy is growing faster than the global economy, and domestic demand is better than foreign demand. In the coming months, the growth rate of China's imports will rise slightly and may exceed export growth.

However, a steady slowdown in domestic demand will bring downward pressure on China's imports. Therefore, China's foreign trade import is unlikely to come back sharply in the future.

Customs data show that in January, my foreign trade surplus amounted to US $27 billion 280 million.

Sino EU bilateral trade totaled 42 billion 680 million US dollars, down 7.1%; Sino US bilateral trade value was 35 billion 460 million US dollars, down 3.9%; Sino Japanese bilateral trade total value was 22 billion 730 million US dollars, down 18.4%.

The total trade between China and Russia is 7 billion 160 million US dollars, an increase of 26.8%; the total trade between China and Brazil is 6 billion 340 million US dollars, an increase of 5.7%.

Structural changes in China's foreign trade will continue to decrease.

Zhang Yansheng pointed out that in the next 5 years, China's foreign trade structure is in a period of intense change. Through overseas investment and capital export, China's import and export markets, products, and other three aspects are undergoing structural changes.

On the one hand, China's traditional trade market has shrunk to varying degrees, and the import and export of emerging and non-traditional markets have increased.

On the other hand, the export of traditional products will decrease in varying degrees according to the intensity of labor force. Due to the rising labor force prices in China, the decline of labor intensive products such as textiles and footwear will be greater in the next few years. However, the export of construction machinery and equipment manufacturing products in China will continue to grow.

In January, the export of traditional bulk commodities in China was stable, with clothing exports of 13 billion 840 million US dollars, an increase of 3.5%; textile exports of US $7 billion 680 million, a decrease of 6.8%; footwear exports of US $4 billion 60 million, a decrease of 1.3%; furniture exports 3 billion 510 million US dollars, a decrease of 2%; exports of plastic products 1 billion 960 million US dollars, an increase of 5.4%; exports of bags and cases were 1 billion 770 million dollars, and decreased;

The above 7 traditional labor-intensive commodities account for 22.4% of the total value of China's exports over the same period.

Zhang Yansheng said that the United States government proposed to revitalize the manufacturing industry, expand exports, encourage American enterprises to withdraw to the mainland, and solve the problem of "Industrial Hollowing" in the United States.

In the future, our country may face the trend of European and American enterprises withdrawing from China. Foreign direct investment will shift from the past export mode to the domestic sales mode aiming at the domestic market, and from processing trade to domestic investment and construction. Therefore, the processing trade will take a significant structural change in the half of China's foreign trade export, and China's foreign trade surplus will continue to decline.