The Main Reason For The Abnormal Foreign Trade Data Is The Spring Festival.
< p > < strong > monthly fluctuation is mainly a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > Spring Festival factor < /a > /strong > /p >
The trade data released yesterday by the General Administration of Customs (P) showed that in February this year, the total value of China's imports and exports was 1 trillion and 530 billion yuan, down 7.5% from the same period last year. Among them, exports were 696 billion 520 million yuan, down 20.4%; imports 836 billion 310 million yuan, an increase of 7%; trade deficit of 139 billion 790 million yuan, compared with the same period last year, the trade surplus was 93 billion 430 million yuan. < /p >
< p > the reason why the monthly growth rate of export data fluctuated sharply in January and February is that Zheng Yuesheng, director general of the General Administration of customs and general statistics department, said yesterday that mainly because of the Spring Festival factor, China's foreign trade enterprises had the habit of "rush to export" before the Festival and the "import first line" after the festival, which would lead to sharp fluctuations in the growth rate of foreign trade in the 1 and February years. < /p >
< p > he explained that the Spring Festival holiday started in January 31st, 9 days earlier than last year. Taking into account the time needed for resumption of production and operation after the festival, enterprises should advance the commodities exported in February to January for export, resulting in the January a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > export scale > /a > increase, the year-on-year growth rate expansion, and the decrease in February export scale and the reversal of the year-on-year growth rate. In addition, the "dislocation" of the Spring Festival holiday also directly led to the sharp fluctuations in the base period. Because the Spring Festival holiday in 2013 was in mid February, and the export in February was relatively small in January, which resulted in a high base in February this year, resulting in a year-on-year decline in exports. < /p >
There are three major factors for export slump in February < p > strong > /strong > /p >
< p > except for the Spring Festival, Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce and international trade and economic cooperation, said there are three factors that can not be ignored: < /p >
< p > one is the diversion of manufacturing orders. In view of the rising cost of manufacturing in China, most of the foreign investment is made in manufacturing, and some of the orders are naturally shunted. < /p >
< p > two was the high base of trade at the beginning of last year. Last February was the time when counterfeit trade was most rampant. The trade base was particularly high; < /p >
< p > three is the RMB exchange rate factor. From the end of last year to the middle of January this year, the RMB has reached a record high for a long time. It will inevitably drag down a number of foreign trade enterprises and factories, which will lead to a dismal export in February. < /p >
< p > < strong > accumulated data in the first quarter were more "year-on-year" meaning < /strong > /p >
< p > Zheng Yuesheng predicts that after March, the influence of the Spring Festival on the import and export will gradually disappear, and the scale of exports will gradually return to normal. At the same time, he believes that the Spring Festival holiday in China is in 1 and February. The influence of the Spring Festival factor will sometimes be completely eliminated in March. Therefore, judging from the early year's foreign trade situation, we should mainly refer to the year-on-year growth rate in the first quarter. The accumulated data in the first quarter are more "year-on-year". For example, he said that from 2009 to 2013, the monthly export growth rate fluctuated from 1 to March per year in two figures, and in 2011 it fluctuated more than 30 percentage points per month. However, from the year-on-year growth rate in the first quarter, it can effectively eliminate the interference of the Spring Festival factors on the judgment of the foreign trade situation, and can more accurately reflect the trend of foreign trade changes. < /p >
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