The Return Of The Fed'S Monetary Policy Will Lead To A Return Of Capital.

In the United States, after 4 years of deleveraging, American companies gradually entered the leverage plus cycle in 2012 and pushed the US economy to recovery and strengthening in P.

As the US economy continues to grow strongly, with the end of the Q E in the three quarter, the Fed will not rule out a policy of raising interest rates at the end of this quarter.

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"P", and once the Fed's monetary policy accelerates to return to neutral, it will accelerate the return of international funds to the US market. The market expects that the return of the Fed's monetary policy to neutral will lead to the return of US $2 trillion and 500 billion or more to the US market.

Obviously, this will undoubtedly further increase the devaluation pressure of RMB.

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< p > of course, the long and weak trend of RMB based on the intrinsic value of money will be compatible with the two-way fluctuation of a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > /a > in the actual trend, even at a certain stage.

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< p > with the high level of China's overall balance sheet, including government, enterprises and residents, whether it is in the demand of steady growth or guarding against debt risks, the dependence on external financing will gradually increase. China will turn "excessive hot money" from excessive burden to prudent tolerance.

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< p > < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > hot money < /a > mainly through commodity a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > trade financing < /a > false export trade and underground banks and other three major channels.

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< p > the latest data of the Hongkong monetary authority show that the proportion of Hongkong bank's net claims to the total debt of the mainland increased from almost zero in 2010 to 40% at the end of last year. The data of the bank for International Settlements showed that Hongkong bank's loans to the mainland amounted to US $430 billion (trade loans), accounting for 165% of Hongkong's G D P, and the total foreign banks' claims in China last year reached US $1 trillion.

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< p > this wears two signals: first, the so-called hot money is no longer a simple arbitrage headless fly, but also a hidden short-term foreign debt of the domestic economic entities. Two, these so-called hot money are deciding or even determining the performance of China's credit growth and steady growth. For example, Gao Sheng research found that 42% of the new base money last year could be attributed to the inflow of offshore arbitrage funds.

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< p >, therefore, we must continue to attract external financing. When the depreciation of the RMB is controllable, we can not let the outflow of funds out of control and the arbitrage window close, so that the external financing channels are limited, and we can not make the margin spread of the RMB exchange rate too high. In addition, we encourage speculation arbitrage and aggravate the risk of debt and bubble in the economy.

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