The Central Bank Continues To Maintain Stability And Monetary Policy Is Based On Quantity.

Central bank anti normality: 27 days before the opening of the stock market

The central bank's Central Bank branch president's forum, which only published information after the meeting, was chosen yesterday.

Ahead of the opening date, it will sound ahead, saying it will adhere to a prudent monetary policy, maintain a reasonable and moderate liquidity, and stabilize financial market expectations.

Li Qilin, an analysis of the people's livelihood securities, said that the central bank's intention to maintain stability is obvious, and the pig cycle should be diluted.

At 8:44 yesterday morning, the central bank website issued a notice entitled "the people's Bank of China will convene a regular forum on the annual Central Bank branch president", giving an introduction to the current economic situation.

It is mentioned that the central bank will mainly observe macro indicators such as overall price level, and will continue to be steady in the second half of the year.

We should use various monetary policy tools flexibly, maintain a reasonable and moderate liquidity, realize the reasonable growth of monetary credit and social financing scale, improve and optimize the financing structure and credit structure, reduce the cost of social financing, maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, stabilize financial market expectations, and continue to support the steady rise of the real economy.

People's livelihood securities Li Qilin believes that according to past experience, the contents of the forum held by mid year branch directors were generally announced in early August, but this year it was advanced to July 28th.

The word "will" in the title indicates that the main content of the conference manuscript has been released ahead of schedule in this year's meeting. It is hard to say that it has nothing to do with the recent large fluctuations in the capital market.

It can be seen that when the market volatility is large and confidence is weak, the central bank pays more attention to expected management than before, and the intention of stabilizing capital market is obvious.

The content of the announcement mentioned that "the recent low level of price level has stabilized, and the price of individual commodities has also increased."

He said that from the Statistics Bureau's 50 city data, the rise in pork prices drove meat up by 5.7%, significantly higher than the 0.5% in 2014 and 1.5% in 2013, which will also push CPI up to 1.6% this month, higher than the expected 1.4%.

It is predicted that at the end of the year, CPI will probably rise to at least 2.2%.

"But from the content of the announcement, the central bank has made two points. One is to observe the macroeconomic indicators such as the overall price level, and the two is to continue to support the steady rise of the real economy."

Li Qilin said this means that monetary policy is more concerned about economic growth.

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Before rising steadily, the rise in pork prices will not lead to monetary policy easing.

Li Qilin analyzed that if the end of CPI increased to 2%, the official interest rate would be negative, which meant that there was little room to cut interest rates.

Therefore, monetary easing may be "taking quantity as the key link".

The first is to launch a long-term liquidity tool, LLF or a drop in the hedge against foreign exchange, and the two is to continue to strengthen the use of targeted monetary policy tools, including qualitative re lending and PSL.