PTA'S Massive Reduction In Production Supports Its Price.

Take the Asian region where the global refinery is more concentrated, for example, the gross profit margin of Singapore refinery is at a low point since November 2014, and lagged behind the refinery gross profit of other parts of the world. The naphtha and gasoline split price difference of refined oil is stronger, but the cracking price difference of other refined products has been weakening continuously, and the possibility of refinery decreasing is increasing.

Under the downturn of demand, even if crude oil prices stabilize, it is difficult to get out of the rising trend. Unless there is a hurricane or geopolitical emergencies, we think that Brent oil price will be weak for 1 to 2 months near the $50 / barrel.

Since the end of July, the main contract of PTA futures has shifted from 1509 to 1601, but the PTA price continues to oscillate.

In the past two days, the RMB exchange rate has depreciated by 3.5%, which has supported the PTA market as a whole. It has increased the production cost of PTA and increased the export of textile and clothing.

But before the 1509 contract,

Futures are still hard to come up with a trend market.

WTI oil prices fell below the lowest level in mid March on Tuesday and entered the two bottom line.

The main reason for the sharp drop in oil prices is that the market expects a substantial increase in supply in Iran.

Iran is the ninth largest producer of crude oil in the world. The output before sanctions was 4 million barrels per day in July 2012, compared with less than 3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2015.

In addition, Iran has accumulated nearly 40 million barrels of oil in the Persian Gulf in the form of floating warehouses, which are gradually flowing to the market.

It can be expected that, once Iran's conditions are right, it will increase production very quickly.

The price is dumped to the market.

Another supply pressure comes from shale oil production in the United States.

Although the US output has not continued to rise, the number of drilling announced by the US oil service company has been rising for three consecutive weeks, and the market is worried that the US oil production will continue to rise.

At the same time, the demand for crude oil is also beginning to turn.

The present is global.

The highest time of operation is the highest oil consumption season in the world, but after September, the demand for refined oil has begun to fade, and the operating rate of refineries will gradually decline.